Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles

Enhanced descriptions from Syndetics:

The argument of Breakout Nations is that the astonishingly rapid growth over the last decade of the world's celebrated emerging markets is coming to an end. The era of easy money and easy growth is over. China, in particular, will soon slow, but its place will not necessarily be taken by Brazil, Russia or India, all of which Ruchir Sharma shows have weaknesses and difficulties often overlooked in the inflated expectations and emerging markets mania of the past decade. To identify the economic stars of the future, he says, we should abandon the habit of simply extrapolating from general global trends and look at emerging markets individually. The new 'breakout nations' will probably spring from the margins - even from the shadows. Sharma identifies which they are most likely to be, and why.

Sharma, head of one of the world's leading emerging market funds, has spent two decades travelling the globe to find out what is happening on the ground in developing countries. With this first-hand knowledge, he takes his readers on a tour of two dozen of the world's most interesting economies, introducing the critical players and describing and analysing the forces - many unique to each nation - which will make the successes and flops of the future. The book is full of surprises- why the current mania for oil echoes the dotcom mania of 2000; how an industrial revolution in Asia is redefining what manufacturing can do for a modern economy; how the coming shakeout in the big emerging markets could shift the spotlight back to the west, especially American technology and German manufacturing; why the next two trillion-dollar economies will be big Moslem democracies . It contains warnings about command economies (some work, but many fail too), shows that the EU is producing model economies as well as basket cases, and suggests what we can learn from the $24 price of cocktails in Rio. Even Vladimir Putin's dog makes an appearance.

Reviews provided by Syndetics

Publishers Weekly Review

Sharma, the head of Morgan Stanley's Emerging Markets division, takes readers on a lively tour across five continents as he explores the factors behind the next economic powerhouses. Analyzing a smorgasbord of indicators-from income levels, to the number of billionaires in a country, to the pronouncements of local politicians-Sharma stresses that the nations poised to be the next big thing in the global marketplace are not the just usual suspects like China, Russia, and India. Instead, they are smaller countries that are making quiet, unheralded progress before the rest of the world catches on. The Czech Republic and Poland benefit from low levels of debt, strong political systems, and conservative businesses communities, as does South Korea, a perennial innovator. Turkey gets a nod for its efforts to bring its poorer areas in line with wealthier urban enclaves, and others like Indonesia and Nigeria have notable potential. But Sharma also offers cautionary advice, courtesy of former Bank of England adviser Charles Goodhart's law: "once an economic indicator gets too popular, it loses its predictive value." Accessible to newbies and revelatory for veterans, Sharma's observations upend conventional wisdom regarding what it takes to succeed in the relentlessly competitive global marketplace. Photos & maps. (Apr.) © Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved.

CHOICE Review

Sharma (Morgan Stanley Investment Management) asserts that predicting which countries will enjoy rapid economic growth in the future by means of extrapolating current trends can be misleading. Utilizing criteria he developed through extensive world travel and intensive research, the author identifies countries that are most likely to experience significant growth in tomorrow's world. Sharma also examines current stars among emerging nations and finds that a number of them are likely to face slowing rates of growth. Although developed economies are already showing low growth trends, Sharma finds that some of them, especially the US, have the potential for modest increase. This accessible book challenges conventional beliefs and offers stimulating insights into traditional concepts of economic development. Occasional graphics and an appendix summarizing key data in map format supplement the text. The bibliography is modest but current and pertinent. Summing Up: Recommended. All collections. W. C. Struning emeritus, Seton Hall University

Booklist Review

Sharma, prominent emerging-markets investor, offers his tour of the world in search of investments, providing facts and figures that guide his firm's investment decisions; he spends a week each month in a particular emerging-market country kicking the tires to understand the economic and political forces. We learn about breakout nations that have many competitors, but only a few win: The rare breakout nations . . . beat the game by growing faster than rivals in their own income class and if per capita income is under $5,000 it competes with rivals in that class for beating expectations and . . . peers. He concludes that China is too big and middle-aged to keep growing at previous rates, and its slowdown will move India into the top growth spot. Nevertheless, he explains why he gives India only a 50-50 chance as a breakout nation; Brazil's and Russia's stars will dim. All will not agree with Sharma, but he provides valuable perspective for investors and all others who seek to understand today's global world.--Whaley, Mary Copyright 2010 Booklist

Kirkus Book Review

The head of Morgan Stanley's emerging markets division conducts a brisk worldwide tour in search of new markets ready for takeoff. No first-book jitters for Sharma, longtime columnist for the likes of Newsweek and the Wall Street Journal. His smooth, almost chummy style suits him ideally for guiding civilians through the sometimes-arcane thicket of the dismal science, looking for those emerging markets likely to disappoint or exceed expectations in the coming years. Sharma insists on the importance of on-the-ground observations, and he's recently visited all the countries discussed here. While recognizing that factors explaining growth change continually, he divulges some helpful, broad rules of the road. We learn, for example, why a particular nation's form of government counts less than the economic understanding and vision of its leaders, why the size and growth of a nation's second city is important and why the list of top-ten billionaires matters. He offers informed speculation on why Russia's Putin may have outlived his usefulness, why Sri Lanka, the Philippines, even Nigeria may finally be headed in the right direction, why Mexico continues to underperform, why Poland and the Czech Republic find themselves in the "sweet spot" of Europe, why the coming slowdown in China will feel like a recession and why Indonesia's new "efficient corruption" counts as an improvement over the old way of doing business. Sharma drills down even further, noticing and explaining the significance of the price of a hotel room in Rio, a single electromagnetic railroad in China, the road conditions in Vietnam, the decibel level of late-night revelry in a Turkish club, the popularity of Korean soap operas, jammed traffic in Jakarta or dangerous street crime in Johannesburg. Confining his predictions to the near future, Sharma refreshingly comes across as that rare thing Harry Truman once sought: a "one-handed economist" willing to stake his reputation without resort to "on the other hand" equivocation. For investors looking to place their bets and for general readers looking to understand the global economic landscape in the wake of the Great Recession.]] Copyright Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.